🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still