Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
