Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.