Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
