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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth British prime minister to take up the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its sixth prime minister in two years – with three in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – left, far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The leader's team announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”